Orlando's 23-year-old forward is performing like one of the best athletes in the NBA so far this year.
What stands out, in perspective, is the assurance.
Down two, 18.9 minute left, under the brilliant lights in L. A. Anthony Davis, a 79.5 % career free-throw shooter who'd canned 10 of his first 11 at the line through the first 47 minutes of Magic-Lakers, masonry a set to provide Orlando a chance to connect — or, perhaps, if you're feeling yourself on the road, to go for the win.
And these times? Brother, Franz Wagner is feeling himself.
Wagner calls protect Jalen Suggs up for the ball screen, getting Davis to give up the switch and allowing him to get one-on-one against Cam Reddish — also a great, long-limbed, sport defender, but not roughly on the level of AD, and moreover, critically, a couple of inches shorter than Franz himself. Rhythm spin, tween-tween, directly to the stepback — no fear, no second-guessing, and no fear.
He cashes out. Magic result. And, one prevent afterwards: Magic win.
Wagner made 41 stepback 3-pointers in his first 231 activities across three NBA times, shooting 33.1 % on those high-wire-act, long-range appearance. When Wagner dotted Reddish's eye on Thursday, it was his 10th in 23 tries ( 43.5 % ) across 17 games this season — the most consequential and loudest, and one that highlights the hurdle that he's had to leap.
The German forward had a terrible taste in his mouth as he entered the summertime. On one hand, he'd set up his strongest time as a professional, averaging 19.7 items, 5.3 touchdowns and 3.7 assists per game for a pleasant-surprise Magic team that won 47 games and made the playoffs for the first time in four years. On the other, he'd ended the campaign with a whimper, capping a season-long shooting slump — just 28.1 % from 3-point land, the worst long-distance mark among 181 players who launched at least 200 long balls — by going 1-for-15 from the field and 0-for-5 from deep in Game 7 of Orlando's opening-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The downward spiral from distance continued at the 2024 Paris Olympics. While Wagner played a starring role for his country, averaging a team-high 18.5 points per game and helping lead Germany to the semifinals and ultimately a fourth-place finish, he made just seven of his 35 attempts from the shorter FIBA 3-point arc. The status of his janky jumper, which had been ineffective for both his rookie and sophomore seasons, is now a big deal for a Magic team that is in desperate need of more shot-making and offensive firepower.
That need became even more desperate on Halloween, when Wagner's All-Star frontcourt partner Paolo Banchero, fresh off a breakout 50-point performance, was diagnosed with a torn oblique that would put him on the shelf for the foreseeable future. Suddenly, doubt was a luxury Orlando could not afford, for the Magic to stay afloat without their leader in points, assists, touches and time of possession, Wagner would have to trust in the hours of work he'd put in over the summer to make his weakness into a strength, and step forward into the spotlight that his patient, poised, effective-but-minor-key game does n't always receive.
Well, judging by the 37 points he just hung on the Lakers — Wagner's fourth 30-plus-point explosion of the season, after rolling up 11 through his first three seasons — to go with 11 rebounds, six assists and four steals? So far, so good:
The Magic have now recorded the NBA's best point differential in those eight games. ( A friendly schedule has helped: Orlando swept a five-game homestand featuring visits from the injury-ravaged Pelicans and 76ers, the disappointing Pacers and the basement-dwelling Wizards, before going on the road to take down a Suns team missing Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkić. ) As has been the case ever since Jamahl Mosley took the reins in Central Florida, Orlando's defense leads the way, smothering opponents to the tune of a league-low 102.2 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions during this stretch.
But Mosley's club has also featured a near-top-10 offense, despite missing Banchero, and despite four of the six Orlando players logging at least 25 minutes a night over the past couple of weeks — Suggs, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anthony Black and rookie Tristan da Silva — combining to shoot a grisly 39-for-146 ( 26.7 % ) from deep.
Wagner has been the beating heart of that offense, averaging 28.1 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.9 assists in 35.4 minutes a night over the last eight games, posting a.587 true shooting percentage ( which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy ) while finishing more than 31 % of Orlando's offensive possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover.
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That is a superstar-level combination of usage, efficiency and production, arrived at only by stacking possession after possession of hard drives to the paint, pristine footwork and expert leveraging of angles, soft-touch floaters and on-target passes in teammates ' shooting pockets… and, as he showed by drilling four triples in 10 tries on Thursday, the confidence to keep firing.
" A lot of stuff is mental, too, for us players", Wagner told reporters after Thursday's win. It means a lot for me to move past the summer hump and carry that throughout the season. I've come a long way since joining the league, but I still struggled last year. Progress is never just linear, you just gotta stay level-headed".
Wagner's own performance may make you wonder how good he and the Magic can be, even though he needs to stay on an even keel.
All told, Wagner is averaging 23.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists in 31.9 minutes per game for the season, back up to 35 % from long range on a career-high 6.1 attempts per game. He's one of 13 players averaging at least 23-5-5 this season — a list that includes four MVPs ( Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Stephen Curry ), four All-NBA selections ( Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Luka Dončić, De'Aaron Fox ) and two All-Stars (teammate Banchero, Brandon Ingram ).
He pairs that impressive box-score production with a sterling advanced statistical résumé: third in the NBA in wins above replacement according to Neil Paine's Estimated RAPTOR, fifth in The BBall Index's LEBRON metric, ninth in value over replacement player, 15th in box plus-minus, 18th in player efficiency rating, and 24th in win shares per 48 minutes.
It all points toward the 23-year-old performing like one of the 15 or 20 best players in the NBA thus far this season. When you combine that with the role he's played in putting the Magic back on track after a difficult start, putting it all together, and positioning his team to reap the rewards, you have an incredibly impressive start to an All-Star case.
Wagner once said to Jake Fischer," The worst thing would be to look back and think I did n't get the most out of myself." If he keeps this up, he wo n't have to worry much about that. Defenses, on the other hand? They're going to have a lot to fret over, just ask Cam Reddish, JJ Redick and every other Laker who got an up-close look at how dangerous a confident Wagner can be.
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