World Cup 2023 2023/24 India vs Australia Match Preview: You Jupiter take down the Sun, in front of over 100, 000 hyper- political followers in blue?
Big picture: The team of this tournament vs the team that tends to win these tournaments
It feels a little like we are in the eye of the cyclone. Over the last few weeks, this World Cup had become a furious whirl of irresistible narratives. There was Virat Kohli's tenacious run to 50 ODI hundreds, Glenn Maxwell's fastest World Cup hundred, then that manic 201* against Afghanistan, a timed-out dismissal sparking major controversy, New Zealand pushing the big teams close but not quite making it, Pakistan's exit setting off major reshuffles at home, Sri Lanka nosediving into a deep administrative and cricketing ravine, Bangladesh engaging in some soul-searching of their own, and Afghanistan orchestrating the most captivating campaign of the tournament but disovering there is a ceiling for them still.
Sadly some of this has overshadowed the news that umpire Kumar Dharmasena is has suggested as much: they will embrace the silence that has tended to fill stadiums when India wickets have fallen, or an opposition has hit a boundary. Many in their team have been part of World Cup finals before, and many have won. Five members of the likely Australia XI were in the 2015 World Cup final, and a few others still won the T20 World Cup in 2021.
And perhaps being battle-tested counts for something too. If the game gets close, Australia have had more recent experience in such situations, and have a long-term history in keeping themselves sharp and collected. For all the data that has now swept cricket, this is still a game played by human beings ruled at times by emotion.
Still, will India even let Australia get close? So far in this World Cup, India have been like the sun, and Australia like Jupiter - the next-most massive body in the solar system, but dwarfed still by the greater celestial body.
Form guide
India WWWWW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first) Australia WWWWW
In the spotlight
Mohammed Shami has played six matches in this tournament, having only come into the team post Hardik Pandya's exit. He's since taken a tournament-high 23 wickets at 9.13, with an economy rate of 5.01. Three times he's taken five wickets, and once he's taken four. There are excellent reasons to put Jasprit Bumrah's name down on the team sheet first, but in terms of wicket-seekers, there has been no bowler better than Shami, constantly coming at the stumps, often muddling batters' brains to such an extent that they are forced to play wild shots. Shami is also part of the reason why India - who very arguably have the best pace attack of the competition (that they have the best overall attack is more widely accepted) - can prosper on any kind of deck, even the low, slow ones. The Ahmedabad pitch for this game is a used deck. You have to expect Shami wickets.
Pat Cummins has the chance to join the Australian pantheon of World-Cup-winning captains, something he will obviously savour. But for the neutral cricket lover, there is a more exclusive, and perhaps more impressive list: fast-bowling World-Cup-winning captains, of whom there are only two - Imran Khan and Kapil Dev.
Cummins has had a decent tournament, but perhaps not for the reasons you'd expect. He's averaged 37 with the ball, with an economy rate of 6.05. His more memorable contributions have been with the bat. He batted out 68 balls against Afghanistan so Maxwell could play that innings, and on Thursday, his 14 not out against South Africa was an important contribution in a string of important contributions that saw Australia through to the final. When he has taken wickets, though, they have tended to be important ones - the dismissal of centurion David Miller in that semi-final a case in point.
If there is a criticism to be made here, perhaps it's that he's occasionally been too rigid with his captaincy. Why not bowl out Josh Hazlewood when he's had such spectacular first and second spells, against South Africa, for example? Why give Mitchell Starc the vital last over against New Zealand, when Starc had had struggled in that game? And yet also, he has also embodied the resilience his team has shown since going 2-0 down early.
Pitch and conditions
This is the same track that was used for the India-Pakistan match in the second week of the World Cup, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be a low-scoring match. Cummins has said he doesn't have any issues with it and there is an extended story on the surface here.
There may be some dew to contend with, however. With there being an early winter nip in the air in the evenings, the dropping of temperature after sunset may make for a soggy ball, though there is also a chemical sprayed on the grass to mitigate the dew's effects.
There is no rain forecast. The temperature will be in the low 30 degrees celsius range in the hottest parts of the day.
Team news
There has been no indication from either team that their semi-final XIs will need any tinkering with. India, certainly, seem to have their set XI.
Australia may think about bringing Marcus Stoinis into the team ahead of Marnus Labuschagne, but against an attack of India's quality, Labuschagne may be the choice again, as it was in the semi-final.
Australia (likely): 1 David Warner, 2 Travis Head, 3 Mitchell Marsh, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Marnus Labuschagne, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Josh Inglis (wk), 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Pat Cummins (capt), 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood.
Stats and trivia
Six of the likely players across the two teams have played in a World Cup final before (Kohli, Warner, Smith, Maxwell, Starc, Hazlewood). They all won their first final. Jasprit Bumrah is ranked only joint fifth in terms of wicket-takers this World Cup, with 18 dismissals. But his economy rate is 3.98. To find a better economy rate on the wicket takers' list, you have to scroll all the way down to 78th, to R Ashwin, who took a single wicket and went at 3.4 runs an over in the one match he played. Mitchell Starc is third on the all-time World Cup wicket-takers' list, with 62 to his name. But he will need six wickets to match Muttiah Muralitharan, the second-highest wicket taker behind Glenn McGrath. Mohammed Shami, meanwhile, is already India's most-successful World Cup wicket taker, and will surpass two bona-fide ODI greats on the list if he takes three wickets. Shami is currently on 54 World Cup dismissals, Wasim Akram (fifth on the overall list) had 55, and Lasith Malinga finished on 56.
Quotes
"The crowd's obviously going to be very one-sided but it's also in sport there's nothing more satisfying than hearing a big crowd go silent and that's the aim for us tomorrow." Australia captain Pat Cummins on playing in a packed Ahmedabad stadium
"We know the expectations, and the pressure, and the criticism. This is not just now, this has been happening since game number one. We have tried to maintain that calmness around the dressing room. Even on the field, when there is a situation where we have been put under pressure, we try to stay calm and just react to that pressure." India captain Rohit Sharma on the immense expectation on his team.
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