Let's get a deeper dive into the collapse of home-court benefits in the NBA.
Each week during the 2024-25 NBA time, we may take a deeper dive into some of the league's biggest stories in an attempt to ascertain whether styles are based more in reality or literature moving forward.
Fact or Fantasy: Home-court benefit is dying
The NBA's home team won 60 % of its regular-season activities from 2000-13, clear information of home-court benefits. In 2014, teams for the first time ever averaged more than 20 3-point efforts per game, and that percentage dropped to 58 %, which was still above that level until the COVID-19 crisis, which led to a new understanding of home-court benefits.
The number understandably fell to a new low ( 54 % ) during the 2020-21 season, when for the most part arenas were empty. With the exception of the 2022-23 campaign, when it spiked to 58 % again, the figure has held firm at 54 % ever since, including this season, as teams ' 3-point attempts have risen on average above 35 per game. Which leads us to know: Is home-court benefit very much dead?
Which team scored more 3s in a given activity was a much better indicator of how well it really won. The team that makes more 3s wins about 67 % of the time, and that number has largely held true for the last decade. ( At the turn of the century, the number was closer to 60 %, same as home-court advantage. )
This time, it has not mattered where teams are playing. Home clubs are 39-19 when they make more 3s, road groups are 36-20 when they make more 3s. If you play at home, you might not always be more likely to score more 3s. That is not correct for past times, yet. Over the previous five years, home teams won 71 % of the games in which they made more 3s, road teams won 62 % of them. But home-court benefit nevertheless exists, and we should expect the figures this year to get those rates again as the trial size increases.
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What is exciting: Those statistics held real during the pandemic. But sometimes it is not the crowds that issue, maybe it is actually being home — in a acquainted arena, sleeping in your own bed — that matters.
Determination: Fiction. Home-court benefit still exists, just not in the way you thought it did.
Bonus Fact or Fiction: There's a gambling component to utilize these
That above 71 % is what my partner Tom Haberstroh may call a Big Range.
In theory, the seven teams that are averaging 15 or more made 3s per game ( Celtics, Hornets, Warriors, Timberwolves, Bulls, Cavaliers and Suns ) should be beating up on the 10 teams that average 12 or fewer made 3s per game ( Grizzlies, Pacers, 76ers, Pistons, Pelicans, Magic, Trail Blazers, Kings, Lakers, Raptors ). However, those seven top-shooting groups are 18-4 against the 10 people, including an 11-0 document at house.
But the top-shooting clubs are more effective because they are stronger, you might think. ( Whether they are better because they make more 3s is a question we will tackle in the future. ) How, then, does that reveal Charlotte and Chicago, two sub-. 500 groups that are 4-1 against those 10 different team?
Take the Brooklyn Nets, for example, who are terrible but rank sixth in 3-point attempts per game ( 40.1 ), ninth in makes ( 14.4 ) and are off to a surprising 4-4 start. In two recent game, they were significant underdogs against Memphis, one house and one away. And they won both illegal, making more 3s each day.
Then, if you are a gambler, your eyelashes may become raising at this point. Sometimes there is something to choosing a house team that is more likely to make more 3s if you are more likely to win when making more 3s, more likely to take a higher percentage at house, and more likely to get there.
However, casinos have gotten shoulder to this trend. That 18-4 history we mentioned earlier is 12-10 against the spread (6-5 at home ). If you are in the gaming industry, winning 55 % of the time is acceptable, but a sample of 11 house activities is untrustworthy. Something for surveillance, nevertheless.
Determination: Fiction? At least until evening, when we put this to the test for Pacers-Hornets. Indiana, which ranks 27th in 3-point efforts and 22nd in creates, is a seven-point favorites on the road opposite Charlotte, which ranks following in both 3-point efforts and makes. Gamble appropriately, my companions.
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