Breaking down Miami's biggest problem, best- and worst-case settings, and dream view.
The Big Question: Is there a way to a contention-caliber act?
Since Jimmy Butler's appearance, the Heat have made five straight playoff images and two trips to the NBA Finals. The mixture of Butler's two-way talent, Bam Adebayo's development into one of the NBA's most perfect players and coach Erik Spoelstra's present for transforming any roster into a top-10 defense establishes a higher floor. And when Butler's perform shifts toward the transcendental...
… the ceiling ai n't half-bad, either.
Reaching it is n't easy, though. Last year, the Heat finished bottom-10 in unpleasant standing, successful field-goal portion, how often they attempted shots at the rim, team shooting percentage on at-rim tries, points in the paint, unpleasant efficiency in" clutch" situations and scoring efficiency in transition, among other groups.
" We need to improve", Spoelstra told reporters. " We need to innovate".
While Spo and the group will undoubtedly face that obstacle,...
Erik Spoelstra asked about groups in the East getting better for as Philly and New YorkHis answer:" You sound scared".
— Brady Hawk ( @Brady Hawk305 ) September 30, 2024
… a league-average-at-best attack likely wo n't be enough to outpace the East's best teams.
" Spo is always talking about being a top-five defense and a top-five offense", Butler told reporters. " That's the formula for success".
The recipe starts with better health, most notably for Butler, who, despite Playoff Paul Bunyan act aside, has n't played 65 games in Miami, has missed 20 games on average annually, and just turned 35. ( In a related story, he entered camp without a contract extension, in another related story, he did n't bring his bits to media day. )
Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro were only allowed to play 527 minutes of football up last year, and Terry Rozier, who had a lowly 18-4-4 record and shot 42 % from strong after the All-Star split, only managed 118 minutes. If Herro is actually working more off the game and Spoelstra really shifts the offense a little bit from iso-heavy play to more fluid, quick-moving sets, then more lineups with several shot-creators and on-ball/spot-up threats should have more opportunities to generate good looks in theory.
" I am definitely intentional about seeing what Terry, Tyler, Jimmy ]and ] Bam looks like", Spoelstra told reporters.
He'll also need to be willful about how he fills the frontcourt position left by Martin. Does he seem to Haywood Highsmith, re-signed on a two-year,$ 11 million offer? The 6-foot-5 27-year-old with the 7-foot wingspan could prove a bargain, if last year's shooting — 42 % on corner 3s ( albeit on just 84 attempts ) — can carry over in a larger role.
There's furthermore third-year forward Nikola Jović, who may provide the most value as a sniper, comparable playmaker and unpleasant connector:
Nikela jovic shot 39.9 % from the third on 6.8 3pa/75 last year, which was a really impressive size and efficiency for a 6'10 21-year-old despite the inconsistent picture. twitter.com/iOYvU0jfy7
— ben pfeifer ( @bjpf_ ) October 7, 2024
After cracking the movement in late December, the 20-year-old Russian averaged eight points, four touchdowns and just under two aids in 20.2 minutes per activity, shooting 39.7 % from 3-point collection on nearly four tries a day. Miami outscored opponents by 9.1 points-per-100 when Jović shared the floor with Butler and Adebayo, that margin came in just 407 minutes, but it merits more exploration.
Whether it's Highsmith, Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or someone else who lines up next to Adebayo, it could be the Heat's center who helps the offense take the biggest step forward … especially if he keeps taking a step back.
Bam Adebayo is currently working on corner 3 at USA Camp. twitter.com/YaFJEQU0Pm
— Emo Jimmy ( @ HeatCulture13 ) July 6, 2024
After shooting 68 3-pointers through his first six seasons, Adebayo went 17-for-52 from deep in 2023-24, then shot nine from the FIBA line during Team USA's run to gold in Paris. He aims to fire at least 100 triples this season.
Nobody expects Bam to turn into Kristaps Porziņģis overnight. But if his outward migration continues on an upward trajectory, it could be a massive boon for Miami's often-congested offense, with better half-court spacing meaning wider driving lanes and a livelier drive-and-kick game.
" Hopefully, this is an offense that will be on all cylinders in the second half of the season", Spoelstra said.
If it's not — if they once again struggle mightily to score, flailing to stay above the play-in fray, with Butler's$ 52.4 million player option looming — then the Heat might find themselves facing existential questions. Not about floors or ceilings, but about what exactly they're even trying to build anymore.
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Best-case scenario
In a Heat uniform, a motivated Butler performs his healthiest and most productive season, earning his first All-NBA First Team selection. Adebayo fulfills his promise to launch more 3s, reducing the number of things he ca n't do on a basketball court to... zero. In the first five, Spoelstra finds the ideal combination of shooting, playmaking, and defense, and whoever ends up looking inward, I'm thinking Jaquez, makes a strong case for Sixth Man of the Year. We look up in March and are stunned to realize that Miami's en route to a top-four seed and poised for another deep postseason run.
If everything falls apart
Butler, Herro and Rozier continue to struggle with injuries, leaving Adebayo overtaxed trying to shoulder a superstar's shot-creation workload and plug every leak on defense. The youngsters sputter under the bright lights, and with financial flexibility and draft-pick assets scarce, there's no cavalry on the way. The Heat must make a decision in the spring, as they watch teams they once defeated pass them in the postseason and the league's pecking order.
Fantasy spin
As one of the top defenders in the league, Adebayo is a reliable source of points, boards and steals who will be off draft boards by the fourth round. If he continues launching 3s, it'll be a compelling development for his fantasy profile.
Butler's ADP is rising from a late-to-mid fourth-round pick — despite his sketchy contract situation. Still, health has been an issue, as Jimmy Buckets has not played over 65 games since the 2016-17 season. Herro has his share of injury concerns, too, and has underperformed relative to his seventh-round ADP. Similarly, Rozier is looking for a bounce-back campaign after his fantasy production soured once he was dealt to Miami last year.
Kel'el Ware is a sleeper I've been targeting late in drafts because he's looked great in the preseason and his play reminds me of a mix of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dereck Lively II. The innovation Coach Spo mentions is called Ware. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
Season opener: Oct. 23 vs. Orlando
Complete schedule
Over/under win total: 44.5
Miami should surpass this number with a few minor adjustments to both the offense and overall health. How much further it'll get than that, though, very much remains an open question.
More season previews
East: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, and Washington Wizards.
West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings• San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz
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