Breaking down Dallas ' biggest problem, best- and worst-case settings, and dream view.
The Great Issue: Does they find the right balance?
The Mavericks appeared to be pulling in opposing directions for the majority of next year. A top-10 act trying to cover for a bottom-10 defense, an MVP-caliber singer in Luka Dončić and an excellent-when-healthy No. 2 in Kyrie Irving trying to carry a roster then sunshine on insulting development, worthy of toppling titans with amazing shot-making, also churning just to be above .500.
You always knew which Mavs you'd see day to day — a" Schrödinger's candidate" level of uncertainty heightened by persistent injury. A half-dozen movement people missed important day, prompting coach Jason Kidd to routine through 35 starting teams, tied for fifth-most in the group. Then, in early March, Kidd shuffled afterwards, flanking Dončić and Irving with go-go-Gadget-armed defender Jones and trade-deadline visitors Daniel Gafford and P. J. Washington.
Jackpot:
The Mavs won 16 of their last 20 regular-season activities— including two loss they punted to remaining starters — with the NBA's second-best defense in that period. They ripped through the American playoff frame, knocking off the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves while allowing only 111.1 points per 100 possessions — a level that would've finished just outside the major three during the regular period. They'd found a solution: Luka + Kyrie + a large, athletic defense = winning at a.757 tape, a 62-win speed, during the extend run.
The mathematics stopped adding up in the NBA Finals. The Celtics violently snubbed Dallas ' complementary people, daring them to demand that they pay for Irving and Doni. They could n't: A Dallas team that finished the regular season top-three in 3-point attempts and makes mustered bottom-of-the-league long-range numbers against Joe Mazzulla's defense, which held the Mavericks to a dismal 106.7 points-per-100 in a gentleman's sweep, with Washington, Jones, Green and Maxi Kleber combining to shoot 43-for-106 ( 40.6 % ) from the field and 16-for-51 ( 31.3 % ) from 3-point land.
So: Enter Thompson, who has made the sixth-most 3-pointers in NBA history, has made more triples than anybody but Stephen Curry over the last two seasons, has finished first or second in the league in catch-and-shoot 3s eight times in the last 11 seasons, and who gives Dallas the kind of five-alarm flamethrower off of whom opponents ca n't help.
General manager Nico Harrison ( who has almost completely transformed this roster in the space of 18 months ) is betting that by swapping Jones, Green and Hardaway for Thompson, Marshall ( one of my favorite signings of the summer ), Grimes ( a year removed from shooting 39 % from 3 for a playoff team in New York ) and Dinwiddie ( who shot 40 % from 3 across parts of two seasons in his prior stint in Dallas ), he has elevated the team's shot-making and offensive fluidity to a degree that paves the way for a top-five offense capable of standing up against even the NBA's most malevolent defenses. He's even betting that, despite the clear point-of-attack drop from DJJ to Klay in the starting lineup, the Mavs may still be able to discipline a top-10ish defense— a device adept enough at getting stops to endure the gauntlet of four playoff series.
That will demand a lot of Washington, now likely responsible for guarding the opponent's best perimeter scorers, of rising sophomore Dereck Lively II, a revelation as a rookie who'll need to take another step as a full-time mistake-eraser, of Kidd, again tasked with finding the right lineups, and, ultimately, of Dončić, now keenly aware of just how uncomfortable it can feel under a championship-round microscope.
It's a big bet. If it pays off, though, the reward could be a big-ass gold trophy.
Best-case scenario
Klay proves to be exactly the offensive accelerant Dallas bargained for, which — combined with mostly healthy seasons for Luka and Kyrie — produces the NBA's best regular-season offense. A top-10 defense is created when Lively enters the All-Defensive discussion, which Kidd effectively blends and matches with his perimeter rotation to cover for his stars. Dončić wins MVP as the Mavs top 50 wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2009-10 and 2010-11. Dallas becomes the first Western team since the KD-era Warriors to make two straight Finals— and, this time, has the firepower to finish the job.
If everything falls apart
Thompson struggles with both the offensive and defensive gears of what had become a smoothly running Mavericks machine, grinding both his accuracy, shot selection, and lateral quickness. Kidd must start robbing Peter of his decisions regarding his lineup, looking for workable two-way groupings, and trying to find any workable two-way groupings without success, because Washington ca n't replicate Jones ' work at the point of attack. Irving again misses significant time to injury, which again heaps too heavy a workload on Dončić, leaving him sputtering come springtime. The Mavs still have enough talent to get into the playoffs, but lack the flexibility and physicality they found last season, bowing out early to a more well-rounded favorite.
Fantasy spin
Looking beyond Dončić and Irving, Dereck Lively II is Dallas ' next-best fantasy option. Lively opened training camp as the starting center, and being Luka's primary rim-runner and lob threat has its perks. More minutes should equate to more fantasy production with rebounds and blocked shots.
Speaking of blocking shots, Daniel Gafford is worth drafting, even if he's seeing fewer minutes in the timeshare with Lively. In 20 minutes a night, Gafford has demonstrated his ability to be a playable fantasy asset.
Lastly, let's talk about the potential Klay Thompson revival with Dallas. Thompson is coming off his worst fantasy performance since his rookie year, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old looks motivated and hyped for what's ahead. With so much gravity going to Luka and Kyrie, Klay will have plenty of opportunities to be the 3-point specialist fantasy managers need in the back end of drafts. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
Season opener: Oct. 24 vs. San Antonio
Complete schedule
Over/under win total: 49.5
The Mavs have won more than 50 games in two of their previous three seasons, and the team this year feels more mature and powerful than those models. Even in a crowded West, I'll take the over.
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